UEFA Nations League

Iceland vs Estonia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Icelandvs

Estonia

Our predictionIceland to win

Model score: High · 62/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Iceland at 66%. The model leans toward Iceland. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Estonia.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Iceland66%

Draw21%

2 · Estonia13%

1 · IcelandDraw2 · Estonia

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Estonia9.80+3.8%

BTTSNo1.58+1.4%

1X2Draw4.48-0.2%

BTTSYes2.25-1.4%

1X2Iceland1.37-3.6%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

IcelandLLDDL

EstoniaWWLWW

Team strength rating

Iceland

Estonia

Most likely scorelines

1-014.7%

2-014.5%

3-09.6%

1-19.1%

2-19.0%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.98Iceland

0.62Estonia

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score40%

Match DNA

Iceland Estonia

Key points

Iceland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Estonia have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Iceland have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Iceland is priced at 1.37.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Iceland win1.37Fair (-3.6%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	5	1
1	15	9	3
2	15	9	3
3	10	6	2
4	5	3
5	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Iceland at 66%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Estonia at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Iceland. Iceland is priced at 1.37. The draw is priced at 4.48. Estonia is priced at 9.8.

Iceland have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Estonia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.

Iceland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Estonia have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Estonia are on 2 wins in a row.

The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →