San Marino vs Finland: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
San Marinovs
FinlandThe model puts Finland at 89%. The model leans toward Finland. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Finland.
- +The head-to-head record favours Finland (0-0-6).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- San Marino have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Finland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Finland is priced at 1.07.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 5 |
| 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts San Marino at 3%. The model puts the draw at 8%. The model puts Finland at 89%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Finland. San Marino is priced at 29. The draw is priced at 11. Finland is priced at 1.07.
Finland have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
San Marino have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Finland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 17% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, San Marino or Finland?
Our model rates Finland as the most likely outcome at 89% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for San Marino vs Finland?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 San Marino wins, 0 draws, 6 Finland wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 | Finland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.