Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Borussia Dortmundvs
Bayern MunichThe model puts Bayern Munich at 60%. The model leans toward Bayern Munich. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Bayern Munich.
- +The head-to-head record favours Bayern Munich (1-3-11).
- +Borussia Dortmund are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Bayern Munich are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Borussia Dortmund have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayern Munich have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Borussia Dortmund will be without Can E., Sory Kaba, Schlotterbeck.
- Bayern Munich will be without Karl, Buchmann, Gnabry, Musiala, Zaragoza.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Borussia Dortmund at 20%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Bayern Munich at 60%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Bayern Munich. Borussia Dortmund is priced at 4.68. The draw is priced at 4.3. Bayern Munich is priced at 1.648.
Borussia Dortmund have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Bayern Munich have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Borussia Dortmund have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayern Munich have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayern Munich are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Borussia Dortmund or Bayern Munich?
Our model rates Bayern Munich as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Borussia Dortmund wins, 3 draws, 11 Bayern Munich wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.