Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Paris Saint-Germainvs
Aston VillaThe model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 58%. The model leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Paris Saint-Germain.
- +Aston Villa are dealing with notable absentees.
- +The head-to-head record favours Paris Saint-Germain (2-0-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Paris Saint-Germain have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aston Villa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paris Saint-Germain have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Paris Saint-Germain will be without Boli.
- Aston Villa will be without Manzambi, Bailey Le., Onana.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 58%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Aston Villa at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Paris Saint-Germain is priced at 1.715. The draw is priced at 3.9. Aston Villa is priced at 4.64.
Paris Saint-Germain have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Aston Villa have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Paris Saint-Germain have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Aston Villa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Paris Saint-Germain or Aston Villa?
Our model rates Paris Saint-Germain as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Paris Saint-Germain wins, 0 draws, 1 Aston Villa wins.
Match statistics
Paris Saint-Germain
- 0Digne
- 0Mendes
- 0Grondin
- 0Aoas Correa
- 0Hakimi
- 0Pancrate
- 0Machado Vi.
- 0Ikone
- 0Alves
- 0Edouard Od.
- 0Mbappe
- Boli (Missing Player)
Aston Villa
- 0Martinez Dam.
- 0Maatsen I.
- 0Torres
- 0Konsa
- 0Cash
- 0Kamara Bou.
- 0Gomes da Silva
- 0McGinn J.
- 0Buendia
- 0Garnacho
- 0Watkins O.
- Manzambi (Questionable)
- Bailey Le. (Questionable)
- Onana (Missing Player)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.