Denmark vs Wales: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Denmarkvs
WalesThe model puts Denmark at 56%. The model leans toward Denmark. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Denmark.
- −The head-to-head record favours Wales (2-0-4).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Denmark have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Wales have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Denmark have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Denmark is priced at 1.69.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Denmark at 56%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Wales at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Denmark. Denmark is priced at 1.69. The draw is priced at 3.74. Wales is priced at 5.1.
Denmark have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Wales have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Denmark have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Wales have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Denmark or Wales?
Our model rates Denmark as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Denmark vs Wales?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Denmark wins, 0 draws, 4 Wales wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.