Turkey vs Italy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Turkeyvs
ItalyThe model puts Italy at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Turkey.
- −The head-to-head record favours Turkey (3-3-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Turkey have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Italy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Turkey have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Italy is priced at 2.32.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Turkey at 37%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Italy at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Turkey is priced at 2.836. The draw is priced at 3.3. Italy is priced at 2.32.
Turkey have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Turkey have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Turkey are on 2 wins in a row. Italy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Turkey or Italy?
Our model rates Italy as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Turkey vs Italy?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Turkey wins, 3 draws, 0 Italy wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 | Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 | Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.