Sweden vs Poland: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Swedenvs
PolandThe model puts Sweden at 45%. The model leans toward Sweden. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Sweden (7-0-1).
- −Recent form favours Poland.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sweden have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Poland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sweden have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sweden is priced at 2.07.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sweden at 45%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Poland at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Sweden. Sweden is priced at 2.07. The draw is priced at 3.1. Poland is priced at 3.63.
Sweden have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Poland have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Sweden have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Poland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sweden or Poland?
Our model rates Sweden as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sweden vs Poland?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 7 Sweden wins, 0 draws, 1 Poland wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Republic of North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.