Nashville vs Atlanta United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Nashvillevs
Atlanta UnitedThe model puts Nashville at 61%. The model leans toward Nashville. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Nashville score more per game (3.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Nashville are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Atlanta United are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Nashville controls more of the ball (57% vs 50%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Nashville have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlanta United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nashville have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nashville will be without Yazbek, Nahar, Tagseth.
- Atlanta United will be without Picault, Alzate S., Latte Lath.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Nashville at 61%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Atlanta United at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Nashville. Nashville is priced at 1.6. The draw is priced at 4.16. Atlanta United is priced at 5.3.
Nashville have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Atlanta United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Nashville have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlanta United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Nashville average 3 goals per game this season. Nashville average 57% possession. Atlanta United average 1 goals per game this season. Atlanta United average 50% possession.
The model gives 59% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Nashville or Atlanta United?
Our model rates Nashville as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Nashville vs Atlanta United?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Nashville wins, 2 draws, 2 Atlanta United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Nashville
- 2Lovitz
- 3Woledzi
- 5Maher
- 9Surridge
- 10Mukhtar H.
- 14Mohammed
- 16Corcoran
- 20Tagseth
- 22Bauer
- 37Qasem
- 99Schwake
- Baker-Whiting (Questionable)
- Yazbek (Missing Player)
Atlanta United
- 1Hoyos L.
- 3Baez
- 4Mihaj
- 8Muyumba
- 10Almiron
- 20Brennan
- 35Fortune
- 47Edwards
- 48Sanchez
- 55Jakob
- 59Miranchuk A.
- Gomes S. (Missing Player)
- Alzate S. (Questionable)
- Dias P. (Missing Player)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18:16 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  St. Louis City | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 27:29 | 17 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 16:39 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.