Luzern vs Thun: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Luzernvs
ThunThe model puts Luzern at 46%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Thun.
- +The head-to-head record favours Luzern (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Luzern have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Thun have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Luzern have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Luzern is priced at 2.06.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Luzern at 46%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Thun at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Luzern. Luzern is priced at 2.06. The draw is priced at 3.82. Thun is priced at 3.125.
Luzern have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Thun have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Luzern have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Thun have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Thun are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Luzern or Thun?
Our model rates Luzern as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Luzern vs Thun?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Luzern wins, 0 draws, 2 Thun wins.
League table
Switzerland. SuperLeague| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lausanne-Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Lugano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Servette | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Basel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Young Boys | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Zurich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Grasshopper Club Zurich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 | Luzern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Sion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  St. Gallen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 | Thun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Vaduz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.