1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Paderborn 07: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
1. FSV Mainz 05vs
Paderborn 07The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 59%. The model leans toward 1. FSV Mainz 05. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours 1. FSV Mainz 05.
- +The head-to-head record favours 1. FSV Mainz 05 (4-2-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paderborn 07 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 1.685.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 59%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Paderborn 07 at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward 1. FSV Mainz 05. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 1.685. The draw is priced at 4.06. Paderborn 07 is priced at 4.68.
1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
1. FSV Mainz 05 have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. FSV Mainz 05 are on 2 wins in a row. Paderborn 07 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 1. FSV Mainz 05 or Paderborn 07?
Our model rates 1. FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Paderborn 07?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 1. FSV Mainz 05 wins, 2 draws, 0 Paderborn 07 wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a46569f5e99bd05c646de30 |
| 4 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 7 |  Hamburger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 8 |  Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 9 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 10 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 11 |  1. Koln | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 13 |  Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 14 |  Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 15 | Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 16 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a46569f5e99bd05c646de30 |
| 17 |  Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.