Cambuur vs Excelsior: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cambuurvs
ExcelsiorThe model puts Cambuur at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Cambuur.
- −The head-to-head record favours Excelsior (5-2-8).
- −Cambuur are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cambuur have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Excelsior have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cambuur have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cambuur will be without Kooistra, Visser.
- Excelsior will be without Bos.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Cambuur at 37%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Excelsior at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Cambuur is priced at 2.664. The draw is priced at 3.42. Excelsior is priced at 2.584.
Cambuur have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Excelsior have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cambuur have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Cambuur are on 4 wins in a row. Excelsior have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cambuur or Excelsior?
Our model rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Excelsior?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Cambuur wins, 2 draws, 8 Excelsior wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.