PEC Zwolle vs Ajax: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
PEC Zwollevs
AjaxThe model puts Ajax at 67%. The model leans toward Ajax. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Ajax.
- +The head-to-head record favours Ajax (1-2-12).
- −Ajax are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- PEC Zwolle have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ajax have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- PEC Zwolle will be without Namli.
- Ajax will be without Bounida, Faberski, Kaplan, Sutalo, van Axel Dongen.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts PEC Zwolle at 15%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Ajax at 67%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Ajax. PEC Zwolle is priced at 6.85. The draw is priced at 4.76. Ajax is priced at 1.432.
PEC Zwolle have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Ajax have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
PEC Zwolle have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Ajax have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Ajax are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, PEC Zwolle or Ajax?
Our model rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 PEC Zwolle wins, 2 draws, 12 Ajax wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
PEC Zwolle
- 1Schendelaar J.
- 2Floranus
- 3Aertssen
- 8Sommer
- 10Kostons
- 11Mbayo D.
- 22Sissoko
- 24Viergever
- 25Oosting
- 28Graves Jensen S.
- 30Thomas R.
- Namli (Missing Player)
Ajax
- 1ter Stegen
- 2Rosa
- 6Regeer
- 9Dolberg
- 10Gloukh
- 12Henrique C.
- 15Baas
- 18Klassen
- 23Berghuis
- 30Bouwman A.
- 68Ouazane
- Bounida (Missing Player)
- Faberski (Missing Player)
- Kaplan (Missing Player)
- Sutalo (Missing Player)
- van Axel Dongen (Missing Player)
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
Half-time score: PEC Zwolle 0 – 0 Ajax.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–0)
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Groningen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  N.E.C. | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.