AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AZ Alkmaarvs
ADO Den HaagThe model puts AZ Alkmaar at 70%. The model leans toward AZ Alkmaar. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours AZ Alkmaar (9-1-3).
- −AZ Alkmaar are dealing with notable absentees.
- +ADO Den Haag are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AZ Alkmaar will be without Natali, Robbemond, Sin, Kasius, Clasie, Hornkamp J..
- ADO Den Haag will be without Mulder, Барань, Peupion.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts AZ Alkmaar at 70%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts ADO Den Haag at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar is priced at 1.36. The draw is priced at 5.2. ADO Den Haag is priced at 7.8.
AZ Alkmaar have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. ADO Den Haag have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. AZ Alkmaar are on 3 wins in a row. ADO Den Haag have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AZ Alkmaar or ADO Den Haag?
Our model rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 70% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 9 AZ Alkmaar wins, 1 draws, 3 ADO Den Haag wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.