Guadalajara vs Deportivo Toluca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Guadalajaravs
Deportivo TolucaThe model puts Guadalajara at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Deportivo Toluca.
- +The head-to-head record favours Guadalajara (3-2-1).
- +Deportivo Toluca are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Guadalajara have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Toluca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guadalajara have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Deportivo Toluca have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
Guadalajara have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Toluca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Guadalajara have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Toluca have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Guadalajara will be without Сепулведа. Deportivo Toluca will be without La Virgen del Camino, Del Villar.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Guadalajara or Deportivo Toluca?
Our model rates Guadalajara as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Guadalajara vs Deportivo Toluca?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Guadalajara wins, 2 draws, 1 Deportivo Toluca wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Guadalajara
- 2Castillo
- 5Gonzalez
- 6Govea Om.
- 10Alvarez E.
- 13Whalley O.
- 17Marin
- 19Del Campo
- 20Sepulveda A.
- 28Gonzalez Fer.
- 37Ledezma R.
- 226Sandoval
- Сепулведа (Questionable)
Deportivo Toluca
- 4Mendes B.
- 5Romero
- 6Pereira
- 8Castro
- 10Angulo
- 11De Castro
- 14Ruiz M.
- 17Isais
- 19Simon S.
- 22Garcia
- 29Diaz Price J.R.
- La Virgen del Camino (Questionable)
- Del Villar (Questionable)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Puebla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Santos Laguna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 | Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Pachuca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 | Deportivo Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Pumas UNAM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 15 |  Leon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 16 |  Atlante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Juarez | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.