UEFA Nations League

Bulgaria vs Estonia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Bulgariavs

Estonia

Our predictionBulgaria to win

Model score: Medium · 49/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Bulgaria at 59%. The model leans toward Bulgaria. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Estonia.
−The head-to-head record favours Estonia (0-2-1).

Win probabilities

1 · Bulgaria59%

Draw23%

2 · Estonia18%

1 · BulgariaDraw2 · Estonia

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes2.36+5.8%

1X2Estonia6.90+4.4%

1X2Draw3.88-1.2%

1X2Bulgaria1.54-3.1%

BTTSNo1.53-5.8%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Bulgaria

Estonia

Most likely scorelines

1-013.6%

2-012.4%

1-110.5%

2-19.6%

3-07.5%

0-07.4%

Recent form

BulgariaLLLWW

EstoniaDWWWL

Expected goals

1.83Bulgaria

0.77Estonia

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score45%

Match DNA

Bulgaria Estonia

Key points

Bulgaria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Estonia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Bulgaria is priced at 1.536.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Bulgaria win1.54Fair (-3.1%)

Double chanceBulgaria or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	6	2
1	14	10	4	1
2	12	10	4
3	8	6	2
4	3	3	1
5	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Bulgaria at 59%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Estonia at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Bulgaria. Bulgaria is priced at 1.536. The draw is priced at 3.88. Estonia is priced at 6.9.

Estonia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Bulgaria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Estonia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →