Luxembourg vs Iceland: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Luxembourgvs
IcelandThe model puts Iceland at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Iceland.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Luxembourg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Iceland have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Luxembourg have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Iceland is priced at 2.515.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Luxembourg at 33%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Iceland at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Luxembourg is priced at 2.79. The draw is priced at 3.36. Iceland is priced at 2.515.
Luxembourg have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Iceland have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Luxembourg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Iceland have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Iceland are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Luxembourg or Iceland?
Our model rates Iceland as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Luxembourg vs Iceland?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 Luxembourg wins, 3 draws, 1 Iceland wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Finland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.