Liepaja vs Decic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liepajavs
DecicThe model puts Liepaja at 44%. The model leans toward Liepaja. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Liepaja have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liepaja is priced at 2.15.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Liepaja at 44%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Decic at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Liepaja. Liepaja is priced at 2.15. The draw is priced at 3.22. Decic is priced at 3.355.
Liepaja have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 33% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liepaja or Decic?
Our model rates Liepaja as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liepaja vs Decic?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.