Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Madridvs
Real SociedadThe model puts Real Madrid at 71%. The model leans toward Real Madrid. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Real Madrid.
- +The head-to-head record favours Real Madrid (10-4-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Madrid have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Madrid have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Real Madrid is priced at 1.384.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Madrid at 71%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Real Sociedad at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Real Madrid. Real Madrid is priced at 1.384. The draw is priced at 4.98. Real Sociedad is priced at 7.7.
Real Madrid have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Real Sociedad have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Real Madrid have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Madrid are on 2 wins in a row. Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Madrid or Real Sociedad?
Our model rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Real Madrid wins, 4 draws, 1 Real Sociedad wins.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 4 |  Racing de Santander | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Celta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Deportivo de La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Levante UD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 20 |  Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.