PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
PSV Eindhovenvs
AZ AlkmaarThe model puts PSV Eindhoven at 63%. The model leans toward PSV Eindhoven. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours PSV Eindhoven (5-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- PSV Eindhoven have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.53.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts PSV Eindhoven at 63%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts AZ Alkmaar at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.53. The draw is priced at 4.6. AZ Alkmaar is priced at 5.09.
PSV Eindhoven have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
PSV Eindhoven have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. AZ Alkmaar are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, PSV Eindhoven or AZ Alkmaar?
Our model rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 PSV Eindhoven wins, 1 draws, 0 AZ Alkmaar wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.