Bahia vs Corinthians Paulista: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bahiavs
Corinthians PaulistaThe model puts Bahia at 47%. The model leans toward Bahia. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Bahia score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Bahia creates more chances (16 vs 12 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Bahia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Corinthians Paulista have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bahia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bahia is priced at 2.19.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bahia at 47%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Corinthians Paulista at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Bahia. Bahia is priced at 2.19. The draw is priced at 3.34. Corinthians Paulista is priced at 3.34.
Bahia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Corinthians Paulista have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bahia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Corinthians Paulista have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Bahia average 2 goals per game this season. Bahia average 57% possession. Corinthians Paulista average 1 goals per game this season. Corinthians Paulista average 54% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bahia or Corinthians Paulista?
Our model rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bahia vs Corinthians Paulista?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Bahia wins, 1 draws, 3 Corinthians Paulista wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 33:14 | 44 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 35:16 | 37 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 26:19 | 33 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 26:20 | 30 |
| 6 | Bahia | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 28:24 | 30 |
| 7 | Corinthians Paulista | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 21:19 | 27 |
| 8 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26:29 | 27 |
| 9 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 33:32 | 26 |
| 10 |  Coritiba | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25:27 | 26 |
| 11 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 22:25 | 26 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 24:22 | 25 |
| 13 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23:24 | 25 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 22:24 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 27:31 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 21:25 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 22:30 | 20 |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 20:25 | 19 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 21:32 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 19 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 17:39 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.