Santos vs Chapecoense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Santosvs
ChapecoenseThe model puts Santos at 67%. The model leans toward Santos. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Santos score more per game (2.0 at home vs 0.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Chapecoense (2-0-4).
- +Santos controls more of the ball (50% vs 39%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Santos have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chapecoense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santos have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Santos is priced at 1.416.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 19 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Santos at 67%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Chapecoense at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Santos. Santos is priced at 1.416. The draw is priced at 4.68. Chapecoense is priced at 7.5.
Santos have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Chapecoense have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Santos have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Chapecoense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Santos average 2 goals per game this season. Santos average 50% possession. Chapecoense average 0 goals per game this season. Chapecoense average 39% possession.
The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Santos or Chapecoense?
Our model rates Santos as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Santos vs Chapecoense?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Santos wins, 0 draws, 4 Chapecoense wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 33:14 | 44 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 35:16 | 37 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 26:19 | 33 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 26:20 | 30 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 28:24 | 30 |
| 7 |  Corinthians Paulista | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 21:19 | 27 |
| 8 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26:29 | 27 |
| 9 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 33:32 | 26 |
| 10 |  Coritiba | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25:27 | 26 |
| 11 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 22:25 | 26 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 24:22 | 25 |
| 13 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23:24 | 25 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 22:24 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 27:31 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 21:25 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 22:30 | 20 |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 20:25 | 19 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 21:32 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 19 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 17:39 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.