Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Jagiellonia Bialystokvs
Korona KielceThe model puts Jagiellonia Bialystok at 49%. The model leans toward Jagiellonia Bialystok. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Jagiellonia Bialystok.
- −The head-to-head record favours Korona Kielce (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Jagiellonia Bialystok have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Korona Kielce have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia Bialystok have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Jagiellonia Bialystok is priced at 1.94.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Jagiellonia Bialystok at 49%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Korona Kielce at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Jagiellonia Bialystok. Jagiellonia Bialystok is priced at 1.94. The draw is priced at 3.46. Korona Kielce is priced at 3.725.
Jagiellonia Bialystok have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Korona Kielce have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Jagiellonia Bialystok have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Korona Kielce have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Jagiellonia Bialystok or Korona Kielce?
Our model rates Jagiellonia Bialystok as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Jagiellonia Bialystok wins, 1 draws, 4 Korona Kielce wins.
League table
Poland. Ekstraklasa| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Gornik Zabrze | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 | Korona Kielce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Piast Gliwice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Katowice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Motor Lublin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Slask Wroclaw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Wisla PLock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Pogon Szczecin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Wisla Krakow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Legia Warsaw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Lech Poznan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Zaglebie Lubin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  KS Cracovia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Widzew Lodz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  RKS Radomiak Radom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Rakow Czestochowa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  KS Wieczysta Krakow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.