Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Neftchi Bakuvs
Dinamo MinskThe model puts Neftchi Baku at 44%. The model leans toward Neftchi Baku. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Dinamo Minsk have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Neftchi Baku is priced at 2.12.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Neftchi Baku at 44%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Dinamo Minsk at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Neftchi Baku. Neftchi Baku is priced at 2.12. The draw is priced at 3.28. Dinamo Minsk is priced at 3.365.
Dinamo Minsk have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Neftchi Baku or Dinamo Minsk?
Our model rates Neftchi Baku as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.