Vardar vs Riga FC: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Vardarvs
Riga FCThe model puts Riga FC at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Riga FC have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Riga FC is priced at 2.31.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Vardar at 33%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Riga FC at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Vardar is priced at 2.891. The draw is priced at 3.4. Riga FC is priced at 2.31.
Riga FC have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Riga FC are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 45% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vardar or Riga FC?
Our model rates Riga FC as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vardar vs Riga FC?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.