Panevezys vs Tobol Kostanay: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Panevezysvs
Tobol KostanayThe model puts Tobol Kostanay at 45%. The model leans toward Tobol Kostanay. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Tobol Kostanay.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Panevezys have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tobol Kostanay have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tobol Kostanay is priced at 2.15.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Panevezys at 29%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Tobol Kostanay at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Tobol Kostanay. Panevezys is priced at 3.215. The draw is priced at 3.36. Tobol Kostanay is priced at 2.15.
Panevezys have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Tobol Kostanay have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Panevezys or Tobol Kostanay?
Our model rates Tobol Kostanay as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Panevezys vs Tobol Kostanay?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.