Rijeka vs Derry City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rijekavs
Derry CityThe model puts Rijeka at 80%. The model leans toward Rijeka. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Derry City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rijeka is priced at 1.17.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 20 | 6 | ||||
| 2 | 21 | 6 | ||||
| 3 | 14 | 4 | ||||
| 4 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Rijeka at 80%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts Derry City at 6%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Rijeka. Rijeka is priced at 1.17. The draw is priced at 6.45. Derry City is priced at 16.
Derry City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 21% for both teams to score. The model gives 41% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rijeka or Derry City?
Our model rates Rijeka as the most likely outcome at 80% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rijeka vs Derry City?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.