D.C. United vs Toronto: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
D.C. Unitedvs
TorontoThe model puts D.C. United at 51%. The model leans toward D.C. United. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +D.C. United score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Toronto.
- +D.C. United creates more chances (14 vs 10 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- D.C. United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toronto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- D.C. United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- D.C. United is priced at 1.912.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts D.C. United at 51%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Toronto at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward D.C. United. D.C. United is priced at 1.912. The draw is priced at 3.64. Toronto is priced at 3.9.
D.C. United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Toronto have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
D.C. United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Toronto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
D.C. United average 2 goals per game this season. D.C. United average 43% possession. Toronto average 1 goals per game this season. Toronto average 48% possession.
The model gives 54% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, D.C. United or Toronto?
Our model rates D.C. United as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for D.C. United vs Toronto?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 D.C. United wins, 2 draws, 2 Toronto wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27:17 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18:16 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22:25 | 20 |
| 10 |  St. Louis City | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 27:29 | 17 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 16:39 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.