San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
San Jose Earthquakesvs
Los Angeles GalaxyThe model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 56%. The model leans toward San Jose Earthquakes. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Los Angeles Galaxy (1-1-4).
- +San Jose Earthquakes creates more chances (20 vs 13 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- San Jose Earthquakes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 1.68.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 56%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward San Jose Earthquakes. San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 1.68. The draw is priced at 4.26. Los Angeles Galaxy is priced at 4.46.
San Jose Earthquakes have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Los Angeles Galaxy have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
San Jose Earthquakes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Los Angeles Galaxy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
San Jose Earthquakes average 2 goals per game this season. San Jose Earthquakes average 49% possession. Los Angeles Galaxy average 2 goals per game this season. Los Angeles Galaxy average 50% possession.
The model gives 63% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, San Jose Earthquakes or Los Angeles Galaxy?
Our model rates San Jose Earthquakes as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 San Jose Earthquakes wins, 1 draws, 4 Los Angeles Galaxy wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27:17 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18:16 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22:25 | 20 |
| 10 |  St. Louis City | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 27:29 | 17 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 16:39 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.