Stjarnan vs Ilves: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Stjarnanvs
IlvesThe model puts Stjarnan at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Stjarnan.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Stjarnan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ilves have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stjarnan is priced at 2.33.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Stjarnan at 39%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Ilves at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Stjarnan is priced at 2.33. The draw is priced at 3.64. Ilves is priced at 2.67.
Stjarnan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ilves have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 66% for both teams to score. The model gives 65% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Stjarnan or Ilves?
Our model rates Stjarnan as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Stjarnan vs Ilves?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.