Deportivo Toluca vs Club Necaxa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo Tolucavs
Club NecaxaThe model puts Deportivo Toluca at 59%. The model leans toward Deportivo Toluca. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Club Necaxa.
- −The head-to-head record favours Club Necaxa (0-2-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportivo Toluca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Necaxa have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Toluca is priced at 1.49.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Deportivo Toluca at 59%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Club Necaxa at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Deportivo Toluca. Deportivo Toluca is priced at 1.49. The draw is priced at 4.25. Club Necaxa is priced at 5.99.
Club Necaxa have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Deportivo Toluca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Club Necaxa have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Club Necaxa are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo Toluca or Club Necaxa?
Our model rates Deportivo Toluca as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Toluca vs Club Necaxa?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Deportivo Toluca wins, 2 draws, 4 Club Necaxa wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tijuana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cruz Azul | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 3 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 4 | Club Necaxa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Club America | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 6 |  Pachuca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 7 | Deportivo Toluca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Monterrey | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:4 | 3 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Queretaro | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 11 |  Guadalajara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 12 |  Pumas UNAM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 15 |  Tigres de la UANL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 1 |
| 16 |  Santos Laguna | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 17 |  Leon | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.