Deportivo Toluca vs Cruz Azul: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo Tolucavs
Cruz AzulThe model puts Cruz Azul at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Cruz Azul.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportivo Toluca have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Toluca have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cruz Azul is priced at 2.34.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Deportivo Toluca at 33%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Cruz Azul at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Deportivo Toluca is priced at 2.61. The draw is priced at 3.34. Cruz Azul is priced at 2.34.
Deportivo Toluca have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Cruz Azul have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Deportivo Toluca have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Cruz Azul have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Cruz Azul are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo Toluca or Cruz Azul?
Our model rates Cruz Azul as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Deportivo Toluca wins, 3 draws, 2 Cruz Azul wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.