Riga FC vs Vardar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Riga FCvs
VardarThe model puts Riga FC at 68%. The model leans toward Riga FC. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Riga FC.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Riga FC have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vardar have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Riga FC is priced at 1.425.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Riga FC at 68%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Vardar at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Riga FC. Riga FC is priced at 1.425. The draw is priced at 4.68. Vardar is priced at 7.2.
Vardar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Riga FC have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Riga FC are on 4 wins in a row. Vardar have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 37% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Riga FC or Vardar?
Our model rates Riga FC as the most likely outcome at 68% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Riga FC vs Vardar?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Riga FC wins, 0 draws, 1 Vardar wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.