Ilves vs Stjarnan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ilvesvs
StjarnanThe model puts Ilves at 51%. The model leans toward Ilves. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Stjarnan.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ilves have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stjarnan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ilves have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ilves is priced at 1.747.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ilves at 51%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Stjarnan at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Ilves. Ilves is priced at 1.747. The draw is priced at 3.72. Stjarnan is priced at 4.315.
Ilves have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Ilves have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Stjarnan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Stjarnan are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ilves or Stjarnan?
Our model rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ilves vs Stjarnan?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Ilves wins, 0 draws, 0 Stjarnan wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.