VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dinamo Tbilisi: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
VMFD Zalgiris Vilniusvs
Dinamo TbilisiThe model puts VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Dinamo Tbilisi.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dinamo Tbilisi have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius is priced at 2.06.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius at 44%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Dinamo Tbilisi at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius. VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius is priced at 2.06. The draw is priced at 3.5. Dinamo Tbilisi is priced at 3.31.
VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Dinamo Tbilisi have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius or Dinamo Tbilisi?
Our model rates VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius wins, 1 draws, 0 Dinamo Tbilisi wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.