Dukagjini vs Lugano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dukagjinivs
LuganoThe model puts Lugano at 57%. The model leans toward Lugano. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Dukagjini have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lugano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dukagjini have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lugano is priced at 1.62.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Dukagjini at 19%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Lugano at 57%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Lugano. Dukagjini is priced at 5.24. The draw is priced at 3.78. Lugano is priced at 1.62.
Dukagjini have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Dukagjini have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Lugano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dukagjini or Lugano?
Our model rates Lugano as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dukagjini vs Lugano?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Dukagjini wins, 0 draws, 0 Lugano wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.