Derry City vs Rijeka: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Derry Cityvs
RijekaThe model puts Rijeka at 60%. The model leans toward Rijeka. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Derry City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rijeka is priced at 1.54.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 18 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Derry City at 17%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Rijeka at 60%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Rijeka. Derry City is priced at 5.65. The draw is priced at 4.05. Rijeka is priced at 1.54.
Derry City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 37% for both teams to score. The model gives 35% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Derry City or Rijeka?
Our model rates Rijeka as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Derry City vs Rijeka?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Rijeka
- 4Jankovic Ni.
- 5Barco A.
- 6Pavic
- 10Fruk
- 14Gojak A.
- 18Абу Аджей
- 22Orec
- 26Dantas T.
- 34Devetac
- 45Majstorovic
- 99Todorovic
Derry City
- 1Maher
- 2Cotter B.
- 3McClean P.
- 4Stott Jam.
- 7Duffy Mi.
- 14Chapman
- 17Twisk
- 19Fleming B.
- 24Lyons-Foster B.
- 27Boyce L.
- 28Olayinka
Match story
How the game unfoldedNo goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (0–0)
Half-time score: Rijeka 0 – 0 Derry City.
Rijeka make it count (Fruk (52')). It's 1–0 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–0)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.