Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Beitar Jerusalemvs
AEK LarnacaThe model puts Beitar Jerusalem at 45%. The model leans toward Beitar Jerusalem. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Beitar Jerusalem.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Beitar Jerusalem have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AEK Larnaca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Beitar Jerusalem is priced at 2.18.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Beitar Jerusalem at 45%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts AEK Larnaca at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Beitar Jerusalem. Beitar Jerusalem is priced at 2.18. The draw is priced at 3.38. AEK Larnaca is priced at 3.14.
AEK Larnaca have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Beitar Jerusalem have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. AEK Larnaca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Beitar Jerusalem or AEK Larnaca?
Our model rates Beitar Jerusalem as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Beitar Jerusalem wins, 1 draws, 1 AEK Larnaca wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.