Bodo-Glimt vs Lillestrom: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bodo-Glimtvs
LillestromThe model puts Bodo-Glimt at 75%. The model leans toward Bodo-Glimt. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Lillestrom (1-0-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bodo-Glimt have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lillestrom have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bodo-Glimt have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bodo-Glimt is priced at 1.235.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bodo-Glimt at 75%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts Lillestrom at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Bodo-Glimt. Bodo-Glimt is priced at 1.235. The draw is priced at 6.65. Lillestrom is priced at 10.5.
Bodo-Glimt have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Lillestrom have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Bodo-Glimt have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Lillestrom have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 32% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bodo-Glimt or Lillestrom?
Our model rates Bodo-Glimt as the most likely outcome at 75% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bodo-Glimt vs Lillestrom?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Bodo-Glimt wins, 0 draws, 5 Lillestrom wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo-Glimt | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 37:11 | 35 |
| 2 |  Viking | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34:14 | 34 |
| 3 |  Tromso | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 26:15 | 31 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 22:14 | 25 |
| 5 |  Molde | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 25:19 | 23 |
| 6 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 15:16 | 21 |
| 7 |  Valerenga | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 22:24 | 20 |
| 8 |  Brann | 15 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 30:25 | 19 |
| 9 |  Rosenborg | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 19:18 | 18 |
| 10 |  HamKam | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20:26 | 18 |
| 11 |  Sandefjord | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 12 |  Fredrikstad | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 15:27 | 14 |
| 13 |  Aalesunds | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 19:29 | 13 |
| 14 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 15:25 | 12 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 15 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 16:34 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.