Ayr United vs Arbroath: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ayr Unitedvs
ArbroathThe model puts Ayr United at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Ayr United.
- +The head-to-head record favours Ayr United (3-3-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ayr United have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arbroath have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ayr United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ayr United is priced at 2.46.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ayr United at 41%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Arbroath at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Ayr United is priced at 2.46. The draw is priced at 2.9. Arbroath is priced at 2.78.
Ayr United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Ayr United have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Ayr United are on 5 wins in a row. Arbroath have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ayr United or Arbroath?
Our model rates Ayr United as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ayr United vs Arbroath?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Ayr United wins, 3 draws, 0 Arbroath wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inverness | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Livingston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Greenock Morton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Partick Thistle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 | Ayr United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Queen's Park | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Raith Rovers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Stenhousemuir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Dunfermline Athletic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.