New York City vs Toronto: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New York Cityvs
TorontoThe model puts New York City at 62%. The model leans toward New York City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours New York City.
- +New York City score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours New York City (6-0-0).
- +New York City creates more chances (14 vs 10 shots per game).
- +New York City controls more of the ball (56% vs 48%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- New York City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toronto have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York City have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- New York City is priced at 1.696.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts New York City at 62%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Toronto at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward New York City. New York City is priced at 1.696. The draw is priced at 3.96. Toronto is priced at 4.72.
New York City have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
New York City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. New York City are on 2 wins in a row. Toronto have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
New York City average 2 goals per game this season. New York City average 56% possession. Toronto average 1 goals per game this season. Toronto average 48% possession.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New York City or Toronto?
Our model rates New York City as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New York City vs Toronto?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 6 New York City wins, 0 draws, 0 Toronto wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 37:16 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 34:19 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 30:18 | 30 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 27:22 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 32:24 | 26 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 20:24 | 23 |
| 8 |  St. Louis City | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 22:23 | 22 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 19:24 | 22 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23:28 | 20 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 26:24 | 19 |
| 12 |  Portland Timbers | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 29:31 | 18 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 30:28 | 17 |
| 14 |  Austin | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 22:32 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 18:40 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.