Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sporting Kansas Cityvs
Houston DynamoThe model puts Houston Dynamo at 48%. The model leans toward Houston Dynamo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Houston Dynamo score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Recent form favours Houston Dynamo.
- +Houston Dynamo creates more chances (10 vs 14 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sporting Kansas City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Houston Dynamo is priced at 2.15.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 26%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Houston Dynamo at 48%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Houston Dynamo. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 3.34. The draw is priced at 3.46. Houston Dynamo is priced at 2.15.
Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Houston Dynamo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sporting Kansas City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Houston Dynamo have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 44% possession. Houston Dynamo average 2 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 45% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sporting Kansas City or Houston Dynamo?
Our model rates Houston Dynamo as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Sporting Kansas City wins, 2 draws, 2 Houston Dynamo wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37:16 | 33 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 34:18 | 33 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 35:20 | 33 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 28:24 | 26 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 23:24 | 26 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 32:25 | 26 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 23:23 | 25 |
| 8 |  Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19:24 | 23 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 31:32 | 21 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 24:29 | 21 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 31:28 | 20 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 17 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 26:25 | 19 |
| 14 |  Austin | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 22:35 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 17 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 18:44 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.