Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atlanta Unitedvs
New York Red BullsThe model puts Atlanta United at 49%. The model leans toward Atlanta United. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours New York Red Bulls.
- −New York Red Bulls score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Atlanta United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlanta United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atlanta United is priced at 1.805.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atlanta United at 49%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts New York Red Bulls at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Atlanta United. Atlanta United is priced at 1.805. The draw is priced at 4.48. New York Red Bulls is priced at 3.6.
Atlanta United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. New York Red Bulls have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atlanta United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. New York Red Bulls have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atlanta United average 1 goals per game this season. Atlanta United average 56% possession. New York Red Bulls average 2 goals per game this season. New York Red Bulls average 52% possession.
The model gives 60% for both teams to score. The model gives 60% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atlanta United or New York Red Bulls?
Our model rates Atlanta United as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Atlanta United wins, 2 draws, 2 New York Red Bulls wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 25:24 | 29 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.