Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chicago Firevs
Portland TimbersThe model puts Chicago Fire at 64%. The model leans toward Chicago Fire. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Chicago Fire score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Portland Timbers (2-6-7).
- +Chicago Fire creates more chances (18 vs 14 shots per game).
- +Chicago Fire controls more of the ball (55% vs 48%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Chicago Fire have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Chicago Fire is priced at 1.504.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Chicago Fire at 64%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Portland Timbers at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Chicago Fire. Chicago Fire is priced at 1.504. The draw is priced at 5.1. Portland Timbers is priced at 5.15.
Chicago Fire have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Portland Timbers have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Chicago Fire have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Chicago Fire are on 3 wins in a row. Portland Timbers have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Portland Timbers are on 3 wins in a row.
Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 55% possession. Portland Timbers average 1 goals per game this season. Portland Timbers average 48% possession.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 61% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chicago Fire or Portland Timbers?
Our model rates Chicago Fire as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Chicago Fire wins, 6 draws, 7 Portland Timbers wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.