San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
San Jose Earthquakesvs
St. Louis CityThe model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 52%. The model leans toward San Jose Earthquakes. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +San Jose Earthquakes score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +San Jose Earthquakes creates more chances (20 vs 13 shots per game).
- +The head-to-head record favours San Jose Earthquakes (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- San Jose Earthquakes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Louis City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 52%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts St. Louis City at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward San Jose Earthquakes. San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 2. The draw is priced at 4.22. St. Louis City is priced at 3.165.
San Jose Earthquakes have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. St. Louis City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
San Jose Earthquakes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Louis City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
San Jose Earthquakes average 2 goals per game this season. San Jose Earthquakes average 49% possession. St. Louis City average 1 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 48% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 60% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, San Jose Earthquakes or St. Louis City?
Our model rates San Jose Earthquakes as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 San Jose Earthquakes wins, 0 draws, 2 St. Louis City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 | St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.