USA. MLS

New York City vs Philadelphia Union: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

New York Cityvs

Philadelphia Union

Our predictionNew York City to win

Model score: Medium · 50/100

Score hint: 2-1

The model puts New York City at 46%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Philadelphia Union.
+The head-to-head record favours New York City (9-1-5).
+New York City controls more of the ball (56% vs 45%).

Win probabilities

1 · New York City46%Draw22%2 · Philadelphia Union32%

1 · New York CityDraw2 · Philadelphia Union

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

O/U 2.5Over 2.51.67+15.4%

BTTSYes1.53+9.2%

1X2New York City2.14+1.4%

1X2Philadelphia Union3.02+0.5%

1X2Draw3.96-1.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

New York CityLLLLL

Philadelphia UnionLLDLW

Expected goals

2.23New York City

1.52Philadelphia Union

Over 2.5 goals72%

Both teams to score70%

Team strength rating

New York City

Philadelphia Union

Most likely scorelines

2-18.9%

1-18.0%

2-26.8%

3-16.6%

1-26.1%

2-05.8%

Match DNA

New York City Philadelphia Union

Key points

New York City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Philadelphia Union have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
New York City have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
New York City is priced at 2.136.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2New York City win2.14Fair (+1.4%)

Double chanceNew York City or draw—Info

Total goalsOver 2.51.67Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	2	4	3	1
1	5	8	6	3	1
2	6	9	7	3	1
3	4	7	5	3
4	2	4	3	1
5	1	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts New York City at 46%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Philadelphia Union at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.

The market leans toward New York City. New York City is priced at 2.136. The draw is priced at 3.96. Philadelphia Union is priced at 3.015.

New York City have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Philadelphia Union have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

New York City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Philadelphia Union have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

New York City average 2 goals per game this season. New York City average 56% possession. Philadelphia Union average 2 goals per game this season. Philadelphia Union average 45% possession.

The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, New York City or Philadelphia Union?

Our model rates New York City as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for New York City vs Philadelphia Union?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 9 New York City wins, 1 draws, 5 Philadelphia Union wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	3	4	38:17	34
2	Los Angeles	19	10	5	4	35:19	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	5	3	37:24	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	6	2	27:24	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	6	3	29:25	27
6	Dallas	18	7	5	6	32:25	27
7	St. Louis City	18	7	6	5	24:24	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	8	3	33:33	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	7	3	20:22	24
10	Minnesota United	18	6	6	6	20:25	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	10	1	27:25	22
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	5	7	7	24:29	22
13	San Diego	18	5	7	6	32:29	21
14	Austin	18	4	9	5	22:36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	12	2	18:46	14