Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Motor Lublinvs
Jagiellonia BialystokThe model puts Jagiellonia Bialystok at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Jagiellonia Bialystok.
- −The head-to-head record favours Motor Lublin (3-3-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Motor Lublin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia Bialystok have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Jagiellonia Bialystok is priced at 2.34.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Motor Lublin at 34%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Jagiellonia Bialystok at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Motor Lublin is priced at 2.838. The draw is priced at 3.4. Jagiellonia Bialystok is priced at 2.34.
Motor Lublin have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Motor Lublin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Jagiellonia Bialystok have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Motor Lublin or Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Our model rates Jagiellonia Bialystok as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Motor Lublin wins, 3 draws, 0 Jagiellonia Bialystok wins.
League table
Poland. Ekstraklasa| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaglebie Lubin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Gornik Zabrze | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Wisla PLock | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Wisla Krakow | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  RKS Radomiak Radom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Legia Warsaw | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 | Motor Lublin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 9 |  Widzew Lodz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 10 |  Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 11 |  KS Cracovia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 12 |  Katowice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 13 |  Slask Wroclaw | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Rakow Czestochowa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Wieczysta Krakow | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Korona Kielce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Pogon Szczecin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 |  Piast Gliwice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.