Estoril vs Famalicao: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Estorilvs
FamalicaoThe model puts Famalicao at 45%. The model leans toward Famalicao. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Famalicao.
- +The head-to-head record favours Famalicao (2-0-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Estoril have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Famalicao have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estoril have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Famalicao is priced at 2.275.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Estoril at 27%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Famalicao at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Estoril is priced at 3.42. The draw is priced at 3.115. Famalicao is priced at 2.275.
Estoril have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Famalicao have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Estoril have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Famalicao have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Famalicao are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Estoril or Famalicao?
Our model rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Estoril vs Famalicao?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Estoril wins, 0 draws, 4 Famalicao wins.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estrela da Amadora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Estoril | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 8 |  Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 9 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 10 |  Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 11 |  Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a4b66565e99bd05c6493a40 |
| 12 |  Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 13 |  Nacional da Madeira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 14 |  Arouca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 15 |  Casa Pia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a4b66565e99bd05c6493a40 |
| 16 |  Academico de Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 17 |  Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 18 | Famalicao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.