Moreirense vs Braga: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Moreirensevs
BragaThe model puts Braga at 60%. The model leans toward Braga. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Braga (1-0-14).
- +Recent form favours Braga.
- −Braga are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Moreirense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Braga have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Moreirense have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Moreirense will be without Pinto.
- Braga will be without Chissumba, Niakate S..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Moreirense at 18%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Braga at 60%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Braga. Moreirense is priced at 5.6. The draw is priced at 3.88. Braga is priced at 1.62.
Moreirense have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Braga have won 14 of the head-to-head meetings.
Moreirense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Braga have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Braga are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Moreirense or Braga?
Our model rates Braga as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Braga?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Moreirense wins, 0 draws, 14 Braga wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Moreirense
- 0Ferreira A.F.
- 0Dominguez
- 0Batista
- 0Monteiro
- 0Pinto
- 0Alonso
- 0Veloso
- 0Bondoso
- 0John
- 0Araújo
- 0Parsemain A.
- Pinto (Missing Player)
Braga
- 0Fontes
- 0Arrey-Mbi
- 0Carvalho
- 0Lagerbielke
- 0Martinez
- 0Rodriguez
- 0Moutinho J
- 0Gorby
- 0Gomes
- 0Victor
- 0Horta R.
- Chissumba (Missing Player)
- Niakate S. (Missing Player)
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Marítimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 4 |  Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 |  Estrela da Amadora | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Estoril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 | Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Nacional da Madeira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Academico de Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.