Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gil Vicentevs
Rio AveThe model puts Gil Vicente at 46%. The model leans toward Gil Vicente. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Rio Ave.
- −The head-to-head record favours Rio Ave (3-6-6).
- −Gil Vicente are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Gil Vicente have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rio Ave have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gil Vicente have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Gil Vicente will be without Bamba, Toure.
- Rio Ave will be without Zamora.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gil Vicente at 46%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Rio Ave at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Gil Vicente. Gil Vicente is priced at 1.925. The draw is priced at 3.52. Rio Ave is priced at 4.
Gil Vicente have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Rio Ave have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Gil Vicente have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Rio Ave have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gil Vicente or Rio Ave?
Our model rates Gil Vicente as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Gil Vicente wins, 6 draws, 6 Rio Ave wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Gil Vicente
- 0Lucas Silva Afonso
- 0Moreira
- 0Buatu
- 0Elimbi
- 0Esgaio
- 0Garcia
- 0Caceres
- 0Lausen
- 0Moreira
- 0Franca
- 0Costa M.
- Bamba (Questionable)
- Toure (Questionable)
Rio Ave
- 0Gouw
- 0Abbey
- 0Petrasso
- 0La Mancha
- 0Vrousai
- 0Nascimento
- 0Ntoi
- 0Galcik R.
- 0Blesa
- 0Bezerra
- 0Monteiro
- Zamora (Missing Player)
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 2 |  Estoril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 3 |  Estrela da Amadora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 | Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Arouca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Academico de Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.