Estrela da Amadora vs Sporting Clube de Portugal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Estrela da Amadoravs
Sporting Clube de PortugalThe model puts Sporting Clube de Portugal at 72%. The model leans toward Sporting Clube de Portugal. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Sporting Clube de Portugal (0-1-14).
- −Sporting Clube de Portugal are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Estrela da Amadora have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Clube de Portugal have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estrela da Amadora will be without Lekovic.
- Sporting Clube de Portugal will be without Abdoulaye, Goncalves, Simoes A., Braganca D., Ioannidis F., Fresneda.
- Sporting Clube de Portugal is priced at 1.312.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Estrela da Amadora at 12%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Sporting Clube de Portugal at 72%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Sporting Clube de Portugal. Estrela da Amadora is priced at 8.9. The draw is priced at 5.55. Sporting Clube de Portugal is priced at 1.312.
Sporting Clube de Portugal have won 14 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Estrela da Amadora have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Estrela da Amadora are on 2 wins in a row. Sporting Clube de Portugal have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Sporting Clube de Portugal are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 37% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Estrela da Amadora or Sporting Clube de Portugal?
Our model rates Sporting Clube de Portugal as the most likely outcome at 72% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Estrela da Amadora vs Sporting Clube de Portugal?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 0 Estrela da Amadora wins, 1 draws, 14 Sporting Clube de Portugal wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.